Mortgage Rates Haven't Moved in 4 Years. Central Texas Affordability Just Had Its Best 3 Years Since 2022.

Both of those are true. Both are sitting right there in our own local data. Let me show you.

Central Texas Affordability Bottomed Here in 2022

Rates have sat in the high 6s since 2023, and honestly, that part isn't news to anybody.

But here's what people miss: Austin's affordability index bottomed out in 2022, the least affordable this market has ever been on record. And it has climbed every single year since.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Housing Affordability Index, directional trend

Same stubborn rate the whole time. Rising affordability anyway.

If you bought here any time after 2022, you bought near the toughest affordability moment this market has ever seen. And if you've been waiting since then for things to get worse before you buy, the data says the opposite has been happening under your nose.

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Prices Confirm It

Our price index by tier tells the same story. Entry-level, mid-range, and high-end homes all spiked hard through 2021 and peaked in early 2022.

Every tier has pulled back since. Entry-level and mid-range homes are running roughly 20% off their 2022 peak.

Two separate Central Texas data sets. Same answer. The correction already happened.

Entry-level and mid-range homes are running roughly 20% off their 2022 peak. High-end has corrected as well.

Two separate Central Texas data sets. Same answer: the correction already happened.

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Meanwhile, Rates Never Really Moved

While prices were correcting, rates just sat there. Here's the 30 year fixed rate, first week of August, five years running.

• 2022: 4.99%

• 2023: 6.9%

• 2024: 6.73%

• 2025: 6.63%

• 2026: 6.75%

  
  

Four years in the high 6s. That's not a spike. That's the market now.

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What Forecasters Say Comes Next

Fannie Mae, MBA, and Reuters are all forecasting the same thing through 2027: rates holding in the mid 6% range.

Even the best five-year models don't get us back to 3 or 4%.

Best case by 2030 is the high 5s. That's the ceiling on the good news, y'all.

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The Real Cost of Waiting

Here's what waiting since 2023 has actually cost Central Texas buyers.

3 yrs

of rent paid, building someone else's equity

3 yrs

of missed local appreciation

3 yrs

of missed principal pay down

The rate barely moved. Local prices already corrected. That equity went to someone else.

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Why People Actually Buy

People don't buy because the rate is perfect. They buy because of marriage, babies, new jobs, retirement, growing families, divorce.

Life. And life does not wait for a better rate.

You Can Refinance a Rate. You Can't Go Back and Buy 2022 Affordability.

You can always refinance a rate later. You can't go back and buy Central Texas at 2022 affordability, or at last year's price.

If you've been waiting on a number, let's talk about what that number is actually costing you here in Central Texas. Reach out and let's run yours.

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Jenn Salladay | Broker Associate | Christie's International Real Estate Lone Star | 512.818.6146